SAPURA GROUP

Sapura Group counters seem to be on the move, led by SAPCRES which has shot up from RM0.735 to RM1.63 in the space of 2 weeks. This was driven by a Citibank report valuing this counter at RM2.15. Based on past trends, I believe it would be a good bet to go into these counters. SAPRES is a cheaper entry counter and in the past it has surged on speculative interest. In 2000, SAPRES shot up from RM0.50 level to a high of RM8.80 and in 2003, from RM0.50 level to RM2.50. Note that in 2003, SAPCRES had shot up to RM17 (this was before share splits).

I have a buy call on SAPRES with a target of RM1 and higher. Today it closed at RM0.505. Good luck.

I will post my analysis of Patimas at a later date.

Monday, 26 March 2007, 1,244.32 (+8.67)

The market has resumed its uptrend over the past week of trading. The KLCI is now trading just below the psychological resistance of 1,250. Surpassing this level would be essential to bring further confidence back into the market. Many speculative counters are seen to have returned to their levels prior to the drop in the market a few weeks ago.

(Source: biz.thestar.com.my/marketwatch)

In my view, the KLCI is moving up on "wave 3" following a much needed correction since the end of February. I think following the past week's worth of market friendly news which included the abolishment of property capital gains tax investors have returned to the market. Several property counters including GUOCO have made significant gains over the past week or so. I'm confident the KLCI will surpass the 1,250 level soon and will head towards the 1,280-1,300 level in the coming months.

Patimas

Patimas has bottomed out around RM0.14-RM0.145 level and I do not think the counter will trend lower than this level in the near term. Over the past week it has hit a high of RM0.165 and some parties were seen to be constantly taking 1 lot over a period of time which possibly indicated the presence of a player in this counter. Towards the end of the day, there is usually some selling and a block of shares that prevents the counter from closing higher. In my view, the accumulation is still on-going and the counter will move when the players are ready and so long as the market remains hot.

Initial target : RM0.24-RM0.25

Dreamer's target : RM1

Rapid Synergy Bhd

I've noticed that Rapid rose 9 cents today. Recently it rose to RM2.06 (5 march 07) before dropping back to RM1.10 2 weeks later. I think this counter is worth taking a look at as I'm sure the players will push it back to above RM2 if market conditions are good.

2 cents:

Buy, Target RM2.

Current Price: RM1.25

Kumpulan Europlus & Talam Berhad
Kumpulan Europlus rose to RM0.885 (+RM0.105) today whereas Talam traded at RM0.355. These two are related companies and my opinion is that Talam will soon trend up to RM0.50.


2 Cents:
Buy Talam, Target RM0.50.




Pilecon Engineering Berhad
It looks like Pilecon may have started to move after a long slumber. This used to be one of the darlings in the 90s rising from RM0.50 to around the RM5. My 2 cents is to buy at around current levels for initial target of RM0.50 and dreamers target of RM1-RM1.50.


2 cents:
Buy Pilecon, Target = RM0.50
Dreamers Target = RM1.00 - RM1.50.



By the way, I do not hold any of these stocks besides PATIMAS. These other stocks are based on my monitoring of the market over time. Keep in mind that "Price has Memory"!

Good luck and happy trading!

Monday, 19 March 2007 - 1,192.22 (+10.02)

The market gained 10 points today after a week of choppy trading. During the past week, China has raised their interest rates whereas the Dow Jones is swinging back and forth as investors try to factor in the level of risk surrounding subprime leases. Regional markets performed strongly today, with some rising close to up to 2%.

Nikkei : 17,009.55 (+265.40, +1.59%)
Hang Seng: 19,266.74 (+313.24, +1.65%)
China: 2,659.41 (+55.19, +2.12%)
South Korea: 1,443.39 (+15.51, +1.09%)
Singapore: 3,113.39 (+44.64, +1.45%)


The charts as we see it today:


[Chart will be uploaded when it has been updated.]

To be honest, I have no idea what is going on with the market at the moment. It is see-sawing up and down and I think the safest thing to do is to wait for a clearer direction. There's a lot of uncertainty in the market and it seems that most investors are on the sidelines. Volume has fallen below the 1billion share market which hasn't been seen for many months.

Patimas

(Source: biz.thestar.com.my/marketwatch)


It seems that Patimas has stabalised around the RM0.14 to RM0.15, hitting a low of RM0.145 recently. There is strong support around this level and volume is decreasing.


Patimas Historical Share Price (Source: biz.thestar.com.my/marketwatch)

I would suggest buying into this counter between RM0.135 to RM0.15 if you have the patience to hold. However, perhaps wait for clearer market direction before entering. If the market drifts lower, obviously there will be opportunities to purchase at cheaper prices.



Ekran

For those of you who have not noticed, Ekran has been on the move lately.

(Source: biz.thestar.com.my/marketwatch)

Ekran was supposed to be delisted last month but has had that date extended. Following its drop to a low of RM0.105, it has climbed back up to RM0.305. I have heard news that Tan Sri Ting Pek Khiing is attempting to clear his debts with Ekran and might inject Global Upline into the company. Global Upline is a construction company in which Tan Sri Ting is the "advisor", but everyone knows that he is really the major shareholder. Global Upline constructed the new Kuching International Airport and has several projects in hand as well. I believe that if the market is good, this counter may head to RM0.50 or even RM1 (dreamer's target). I do not hold any shares in Ekran as I think the risk of delisting or the company going broke is high. However, so long as Tan Sri Ting is pushing up his shares, feel free to take a punt. All I can say is good luck! I've noticed that the major shareholders of Hubline have recently acquired a few million shares and are now make up 2 or 3 of the top 30 shareholders. They are Foochow just like Tan Sri Ting so maybe they know something that we don't.

Happy Trading!

Tuesday, 13 March 2007 - 1200.01 (-3.28) points

Intraday Chart (Source: biz.thestar.com.my/marketwatch)

The KLCI closed 3.28 points lower at 1,200.01 points today after trading higher for most of the day, hitting a high of 1,214.15 points. After the lunch break, there was a sell down which caused the KLCI and the broader market to begin declining until the end of the day. It seems that local funds may have stepped in towards the end of the day to ensure the KLCI stayed above the psychologically important 1,200 point level.

In the afternoon session, traders could be seen selling down their shareholdings which is an indication that they have not forgotten the fall that was sparked by China's plunge almost 2 weeks ago. Losers led gainers 714 to 264 counters.

Once again, another doji has formed, indicating indecision in the market. The gravestone doji which was formed on Friday was followed by Monday's gain showing that buyers had returned to the market. As can be seen in the intra day graph above, buyers were present in the morning session but the KLCI's gains were driven back as the bears/sellers emerged in the afternoon. Personally, when I have been observing the market over the past few weeks, I have noticed that it has moved in tandem with the rest of the region, especially the Singapore market. If you click on the yahoo link to the right hand side of the blog, you will be able to follow how other regional markets are tracking throughout the day. I noted that towards the end of the morning session, the Singapore market was trading in negative territory and sure enough in the afternoon session, the KLCI followed suit.

The doji that was formed today indicates indecision in the market yet again and the market's short term direction will need to be confirmed by tomorrow's trade. However, it feels that the market doesn't really have 'strength' as confidence may be shaky at the moment. This is evident when share prices began to dip quickly as the market started to trend downwards - people headed straight for the door. Perhaps the market needs another correction to shake out all the nervous investors before it can continue its strong march ahead.

Patimas
(Source: biz.thestar.com.my/marketwatch)

Patimas it seems to me is beginning to form a base around the RM0.15 to RM0.16 levels. Volume has started to decrease which to me shows that the stock is stabilising after the volatility of the past month or so. I suggest to collect between RM0.135 and RM0.155. The RM0.15 level seems to have held strong this afternoon even after over 2milion shares were sold at this level. I believe that if the market trends lower however, the people behind this counter will allow this stock to fall to collect at lower levels.

There was a mention that Patimas is moving similar to Iris prior to Iris beginning its run up to RM1.38. I did do a comparison but I shall post this up at a later date. The movements do look somewhat similar although Iris stabilised around the RM0.14 level before its next big move. Basically, the volume in Iris decreased to just over 1million shares done per day for several days before volume increased significantly and the stock moved up to the RM0.20-RM0.22 level before moving above RM0.30.

2 Cents:
If there is spare cash lying around, my picks are as follows:
- Gtronic RM0.29 and below
- Patimas RM0.135 to RM0.155
- Symphony RM0.33 and below

I monitor several stocks at once (up to 30) but I only focus on 10 main stocks that I might possibly buy. I invest using focus - meaning I put most of eggs into one basket. It can be risky, but if you select the right stocks, it can be very profitable too.

Anyhow, there is a lot of uncertainty and shaky confidence in the market at the moment so if you want to buy, I'm sure there will be opportunities unless the market suddenly takes off. When you are in doubt about what to do, about how different events will affect share prices, refer to the charts - the market will take these factors into consideration and the charts will tell you what to do (if you can read it right!).

May all your trades be good trades.

Happy Trading!

Friday, 9 March 2007. 1,188.83 (+1.77)

(Source: biz.thestar.com.my/marketwatch)

Good number to end a not so good trading day. The KLCI closed up 1.77points today after reaching a high of 1,201.45 points. According to analysts, it is important for the 1,200 points resistance to be broken convincingly in order for the rally to continue. The intraday graph above shows that selling pressure emerged from the early morning and pushed the KLCI lower to end the day jus marginally higher.

(Source: biz.thestar.com.my/marketwatch)

For those of you who are familiar with candlesticks, you will understand the significance of the gravestone doji formed by today's trade. This doji after the recent uptrend indicates a failed rally and a possible reversal of trend. From my personal analysis, this shows that the the upward movement over the past 3 days was a technical rebound and possible a wave 'B' in a minor bear wave. This needs further confirmation from Monday's trade, but this means that the KLCI is likely to trend lower on Monday which may lead the KLCI to decline past the 1,086 level achieved during the week.

This could also be the formation of Wave '2' in the overall movement. Note that this analysis is based on my basic knowledge of Candlesticks and Elliot Wave Theory. From the charts above, my guess is next Monday will see a downward movement in the KLCI unless something happens that will push the KLCI past the all important 1,200 point level convincingly.

Patimas

(Source: Kenwealth.com)

Patimas closed down RM0.01 today at RM0.15 with 5.7m shares done. It should be noted that 4.7m shares were done at RM0.155 and RM0.16 and only 26,000 shares were done at RM0.15. It seems that the last trade of the day of 9,000 shares was done at RM0.15 which depressed the price slightly to RM0.15. It seems there are buyers around this level. Volume is shrinking which shows less tug of war between buyers and sellers. The price seems to be settling at around this level barring any unforeseen downtrends in the future.

I've bought in at around the RM0.155 level.

Hubline

(Source: biz.thestar.com.my/marketwatch)

For those of you who want to invest in a company with solid fundamentals, take a look at Hubline. This counter dropped to a low of RM1.50 during the past week in line with the overall market plunge. Since then it has recovered to RM2.11. It is my belief it will move back to its pre-decline level of around RM2.75. There are rumours this counter will move to RM5 in good market conditions. Even if it doesn't, I believe this would be a good counter to hold for the long term. It is run by very competent management and is trading at attractive valuations based on forecast FY07 earnings having purchased a majority stake in Highline Shipping recently.

I do not hold any shares in this company although I've wanted to buy into it several times during the week. I ended up trading other counters instead but I wished I had entered! It was trading below RM1.75 yesterday morning (Thursday).

Hope you had a good trading week and made some money eventhough the market collapsed during the week.

May all your trades be good trades.

Happy Trading!

Thursday, 8 March 2007. 1,187.06 (+30.48 points)

KLCI Intraday Chart (Source: biz.thestar.com.my/marketwatch)

The market has continued its uptrend for the third day in a row, ending up 30.48 points to 1,187.06. Today was an important day to restore investor confidence in order for the KLCI to continue its bullish run. It was a day of strong buying and it seemed that some confidence had been restored which was seen in the uptrend of several retail counters that had increased significantly prior to the drop last week. Counters moved up slowly but surely in a sustainable manner. I assume tomorrow will be a day of more buying. Those who were sceptical of the rebound have slowly begun to re-enter the market, myself included.

Wednesday I made a few quick trades. I had purchased Symphony-WA (RM0.185, RM0.19) and Patimas (RM0.155) towards the end of trade on Tuesday and disposed of them on Wednesday at RM0.20 and RM0.16 respectively for a gain of about RM800 as I thought the market would trend lower today. The resilient market caused me to re-enter the market this afternoon. I bought heavily into Patimas at RM0.155 (closing RM0.16), and am waiting for the counter to move to at least 0.25 before considering to dispose. If the market is good, this counter may run to RM0.50 or even RM1 if the bullish trend continues.

Asian Markets had moved strongly higher during the day as follows:

Shanghai Composite 2,928.015 (+31.421) (+1.08%)
Hang Seng 19,175.17 (+256.53) (+1.36%)
Bombay 30 13,049.35 (+469.60) (+3.73%)
Nikkei 225 17,090.311 (+325.69) (+1.94%)
Straits Times 3,122.49 (+63.34) (+2.07%)
Seoul Composite 1,423.89 (+12.94) (+0.92%)

With regional markets continuing to move strongly, I predict Bursa Malaysia will continue its bullish run. May your trades be good trades.

Happy Trading!

Closing, Tuesday 6 March 2007 - 1,130.96 (+20.27)

The market closed off its high of 1,137.82 today but many penny stocks and speculative counters closed strongly - at or near their intraday highs. Among the stocks I was monitoring - Symphony shot up 9cents to RM0.405 (+28.57%), Symphony-WA up RM0.06 to RM0.19 (+46.15%), Patimas up RM0.02 to RM0.16 (+14.29%) and Patimas-WA up RM0.025 to RM0.095 (+35.71%). I was tempted to go in several times during the day but uncertainty over whether the market was going to head lower in the afternoon kept me out. Eventhough the KLCI closed 7 points below its high, many retail counters were closing strongly so reluctantly I went in purchasing Patimas at RM0.155 and Symphony-WA at RM0.185 and RM0.19. Hoping that the DOW will rise tonight, tomorrow should have a relatively strong opening which would present selling opportunities if one would like to exit.

My point of view, Patimas looks like it's going to be the next IRIS. In 2005, IRIS rose from RM0.08 to RM1.38 - it was rumoured to be played up by Repco Low. Seeing that several directors wanted to sell their stake in Patimas to IRIS in exchange for IRIS shares, I suspect there may be some sort of link between these two counters. Patimas's NTA is RM0.16 and they have been making money every year up to the current year. I'm betting that if the market runs similar to that spurt in 2000 where the KLCI hit 1,000 points or pre-asian crisis times, there will be no counter under RM1. Seeing that this counter has positive NTA, has had a strong profit record and betting that the market will remain hot, it may be a long shot, but my "crazy target" would be in excess of RM1.

As for Symphony, this stock has been played to a high of around RM2.80 or RM2.40 a few years ago. The adjusted all time high is RM1.60 (taking into account share split etc). Potentially, I think Symphony can hit RM1. It reached a high of RM0.68 a week or two ago before the sharp drop in the market. The warrants expire in 2 years and have a pretty high exercise price. However, when the market is hot, logic is usually thrown out of the window - have a look at Insas-WA for example.

Anyhow, I reckon tomorrow's morning session will be up assuming the DOW closes in positive territory tonight. Hopefully our market will continue its uptrend soon.

Happy Trading!

Buying on the Cheap?

Source: biz.thestar.com.my/marketwatch

Stock markets have been in a tail spin since last week after the Chinese stock market dropped by nearly 9%, sending shock waves around the world. Since then, the Dow Jones Index has had its worst week since 9/11 and Bursa Malaysia has fallen from levels since pre-Asian crisis 1997. Since last Tuesday, Bursa Malaysia has had 6 straight down days in a row, including an opening of -100 points Wednesday, 28 February 2007.

No doubt, Bursa was due for a correction after a sharp run up to 1,280 points and a surge in volume to a historic high of over 4billion shares in a single day. This is amazing volume considering the average Dow Jones volume of 0.5billion shares per day based on a quick look at this chart. From the knowledge I have gathered over the years, a surge in volume is usually a sign that it is time to sell. I was fortunate to have exited on Tuesday before the big sell off. I lost a lot of paper profit, but was fortunate to still have made a gain considering how the market has performed over the last week. Thus, the fact that bursa was due for a correction and in line with the fall in markets worldwide, the index has lost about 170 points in a span of 4 days.

Stock prices are falling to levels even below their recent run up as investors/speculators are panicking. Retailers would yet again be scared into hiding. It has taken a while for retailers to join the recent run up in the market as many have been burnt over the last 5-10 years. All those people buying with credit - whether it be contra trading or margin financing will be finding themselves with significant losses as a result of the past week. To make matters worse, margin calls are coming out and those who are unable to top up their accounts will see their shares forced sold in the market. For those of you who don't know what forced selling is - that is when a finance provider sells an investor's shares at whatever price to recover the money loaned to you. Basically, so long as there is a buyer, they will sell which is why some share prices are being depressed even further. So a word of advice: NEVER buy on credit no matter how great the market is at the moment. As you have seen, the market can turn around and erase all gains in a space of a few days!

So is it time to buy? The dust has yet to settle, so it would probably be better to wait a week or two. However, there is talk that it will take months for the market to recover. The technical rebound I was advised will not be that strong as it will be a chance for those who want to sell to dispose of their shares. I believe that if you have spare cash lying around, this is the time to pick up dirt cheap shares (following you've done your homework) at levels close to their lows. But you never know, if you buy now, they may go lower. So my opinion?...

My 2 cents:
1. If you have cash lying around, start buying slowly up to 50% of your cash holdings (ie. if you have $50,000, buy up to $25,000 worth or stocks. The other 25,000 is in case the market drops further).

2. Do your research and buy stocks with positive NTAs (Net Tangible Assets) in case you may need to hold on for medium to long term.

3. Buy stocks below their NTAs - there are many out there, just do your research.

4. Don't buy bankrupt companies unless you're a gambler.

5. Personally, I am going for cheaper stocks as I'm after percentage gains. If you buy blue chips and they move 50cents, you will make less than a 5% return. But if you buy a 20c share and it goes up 5 cents, you will make a 25% gain. You'll be surprised how many cheap, fundamentally good stocks there are in the market. These are cheap due to share splits etc. There are those that may argue regarding valuation etc.. but the fact is that Bursa is actually quite a speculative market and the chance to make big percentage gains is good so long as you pick the right stocks. At the same time, you wanna make sure your stock doesn't ever go to zero in the case you have to hold on to it for medium to long - so make sure they have a high NTA.

So good luck! Market opens in less than an hour.

Happy Trading.